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Forecasting Publications Archive

Travel Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual Second Edition
September 2010, Manual

The original manual was published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP) in 1997. Since then, the need for quality model validation has increased. Several issues have made well validated travel models increasingly important in order to provide decision-makers the assurance they need to confidently use the travel forecasts. However, as documented in the Transportation Research Board (TRB) Special Report 288, Metropolitan Travel Forecasting, Current Practice and Future Direction(SR 288), the state of model validation has not necessarily kept pace with the need. The second edition provides information on the validation processes useful for building confidence in the travel modeling process and resulting travel forecasts for various target audiences.

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Past Publications (prior to 2010)

Travel Model Validation Practices Peer Exchange (December 2008) 

National Travel Demand Forecasting Model Phase I Final Scope (September 2008) 

A Snapshot of Travel Modeling Activities (August 2008) 

Economic Impact Study of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System (June 2008)

NCHRP Report 606: Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit (March 2008) 

Quick Response Freight Manual II (September 2007) 

Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes, Chapter 17 (August 2007) 

Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction (July 2007)

• Full Report
• Survey Results

Bay Area/California High-Speed Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasting Study (2006)

• Interregional Model System Development
• Levels-of-Service Assumptions and Forecast Alternatives
• Findings from the Second Peer Review Panel Meeting

Traffic Analysis Toolbox Volume I: Traffic Analysis Tools Primer (July 2004)

Traffic Analysis Toolbox Volume II: Decision Support Methodology for Selecting Traffic Analysis Tools (July 2004)

Traffic Analysis Toolbox Volume III: Guidelines for Applying Traffic Microsimulation Modeling Software (July 2004)

Transit Customers – Who, Why, Where, and How: A Market Analysis of the San Mateo County Transit District (April 2004)

Florida Statewide Intermodal Highway Freight Model (November 2002)

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